Workpackage 3: 4D Process Models
Workpackage leader: RBINS
Most innovatively, the 3D geological models will be coupled to 4D process models. Experience in this field is mostly land-based, where 3D geological models drive (geo)-hydrological models (cf. Raiber et al. 2012). The interaction between model suites can be simple to very complex, with increasing technical capacity needs. It will be a challenging task requiring a feasibility assessment to determine the achievable integration. RBINS has vast experience in using numerical models for the quantification of the effects of marine aggregate extraction in sandy shelf environments (e.g. Van den Eynde et al. 2010). Methodological workflows will be adapted to incorporate geological boundary conditions (e.g. base of extractable layers), as distilled from the 3D geological models. To assess the regeneration potential of impacted areas after extraction, a critical parameter within MSFD Seafloor Integrity, natural system variability will be quantified, based on systematic analyses of long-term databases on seabed evolution (cf. Dalyander et al. 2013). Research on depletion rates will combine results of sediment-transport models, depth evolutions from monitoring data (FPS Economy), and extraction rates from vessel-monitoring data. Per vertical series of voxels from the 3D geological model, a sustainable extraction threshold will be proposed, taking into account the geological resource available, regeneration potential and depletion rate, hence respecting environmental limits for extraction.
Other workpackages:
WP1: Data, Information to Knowledge WP2: 3D Geological Models WP4: Scenario Analyses and Predictions
